China Jushi (600176): 19 results are expected to improve quarter-to-quarter long-term layout

China Jushi (600176): 19 results are expected to improve quarter-to-quarter long-term layout

The 19Q1 performance is in line with expectations. We are optimistic that the growth rate of 19 years of performance will improve quarter by quarter. The company announced the first quarter report of 2019, and achieved operating income of 2.5 billion US dollars, a total of +0.

1%, +3 from the previous quarter.

9%.

Net profit attributable to mother 5.

0 ‰, at least -19.

1%, +8.

1%, net of non-attributed net profit4.

5 trillion, -26 a year.

5%, in line with expectations.

We expect the Q2 price to stabilize compared to the previous forecast, and sales volume will return to 10% -20% growth. Considering the base effect of high and low glass fiber prices in 18 years, we maintain the judgment that the 19 year performance will improve quarterly, and we are optimistic about Jushi GlobalAt the level of glass fiber leader, we continue to maintain cost and technological leadership.

Taking into account the recent improvement in the company’s estimated improvement in the hub, the 2019 estimate is raised to 18-20x PE and the target price is increased to 13.

37-14.

85 (previous value was 11.

88-13.

37 yuan), maintain “Buy” rating.

Affected by the decline in glass fiber prices and the rapid increase in expenses, the net interest rate in 19Q1 fell by 7%.

The revenue of 1pct19Q1 glass fiber and products decreased slightly due to the decline in prices. The sales volume remained basically the same (high base in 18Q1), and the income from other businesses (mainly building materials trade) increased. The company’s 19Q1 comprehensive gross profit margin decreased.

1pct, mainly due to the decline in the price of glass fiber products, the cost rate increased during the period5.

0%, because the sales expense ratio is maximized by 1.

2pct, due to the increase in transportation and storage costs, the management expense ratio (including research and development) is gradually increased1.

7pct, mainly due to the increase in personnel and wages, the financial expense ratio increased by 2.

0pct, mainly due to the increase in interest-denying.

The change in fair value was 24.93 million yuan, due to the positive return on foreign exchange forwards (to smooth out the risk of exchange fluctuations, and the exchange loss from RMB appreciation in 19Q1).

The government subsidy increased in 19Q1, and finally the net interest rate in 19Q1 gradually decreased 7.
.

1pct.

Q2 prices have stabilized and are optimistic about the 19-year performance improvement quarter-by-quarter. The new 80-digit throughput of the industry in the second half of 2018 is gradually being digested. According to the company’s conference call, from March 19, especially after April, the price trendThe stability phenomenon is obvious, the structure of boulder products is excellent, and the defensive performance is deteriorated. At present, the middle and high-end products in the boulder product structure account for more than 60%, and the prices of high-end products are relatively firm.

In 19Q1, the company’s output growth rate is relatively fast, and the growth multiple of 1-2 months has been reduced. Since March, it can basically achieve a 100% production and sales rate. It is expected that Q2 glass fiber and product sales growth rate will be 10% -20%, maintaining at least 180 months of sales.Forecast (an increase of 13% per year), taking into account the price of glass fiber in the 18 years before and after high, and 19Q2 glass fiber prices stabilized, while natural gas ends the heating season price, increasing personnel efficiency will play the greatest role, it is expected that the performance in 19 years will achieve at leastSeason improved.

Maintain profit forecast, maintain “Buy” rating and maintain EPS forecast for 19-21 to 0.

74/0.

82/0.

92 yuan, we believe that the price impact caused by the increased production capacity in the second half of 2018 is expected to basically end in the first half of 1919. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the integration of the production base of Jushi and the industrial chain. It is expected that the company will achieve stable sales in the medium and long termGrowth, continuous optimization of product structure, and continuous cost 北京夜生活网 reduction due to technological progress.

Recently, comparable companies estimate that the center of improvement will move upwards. With reference to the average 16 times of 19 years of comparable companies, taking into account the company’s global leader position, conversion cost advantages and technical strength, it should enjoy a certain estimated premium to give companies 18-20x target PE in 2019With a target price of 13.

37-14.

85 (previous value was 11.

88-13.

37 yuan), we think the time for long-term layout has arrived, and maintain the “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: The global economic climate is down, and the cost decline is less than expected.